Birthday paradox

How large must the group of people be so that the probability that two people have a birthday on the same day of the year is greater than 90%?

Result

n =  41

Solution:

p1=13650.0027  q2=1364365=13650.0027 q3=1(1q2) 363365=1(10.0027) 3633650.0082 q4=1(1q3) 362365=1(10.0082) 3623650.0164  q5=1(1q4) 3654365=1(10.0164) 36543650.0271 q6=1(1q5) 3655365=1(10.0271) 36553650.0405 q7=1(1q6) 3656365=1(10.0405) 36563650.0562 q8=1(1q7) 3657365=1(10.0562) 36573650.0743 q9=1(1q8) 3658365=1(10.0743) 36583650.0946 q10=1(1q9) 3659365=1(10.0946) 36593650.1169 q11=1(1q10) 36510365=1(10.1169) 365103650.1411 q12=1(1q11) 36511365=1(10.1411) 365113650.167 q13=1(1q12) 36512365=1(10.167) 365123650.1944 q14=1(1q13) 36513365=1(10.1944) 365133650.2231 q15=1(1q14) 36514365=1(10.2231) 365143650.2529 q16=1(1q15) 36515365=1(10.2529) 365153650.2836 q17=1(1q16) 36516365=1(10.2836) 365163650.315 q18=1(1q17) 36517365=1(10.315) 365173650.3469 q19=1(1q18) 36518365=1(10.3469) 365183650.3791 q20=1(1q19) 36519365=1(10.3791) 365193650.4114 q21=1(1q20) 36520365=1(10.4114) 365203650.4437 q22=1(1q21) 36521365=1(10.4437) 365213650.4757 q23=1(1q22) 36522365=1(10.4757) 365223650.5073 q24=1(1q23) 36523365=1(10.5073) 365233650.5383 q25=1(1q24) 36524365=1(10.5383) 365243650.5687 q26=1(1q25) 36525365=1(10.5687) 365253650.5982 q27=1(1q26) 36526365=1(10.5982) 365263650.6269 q28=1(1q27) 36527365=1(10.6269) 365273650.6545 q29=1(1q28) 36528365=1(10.6545) 365283650.681 q30=1(1q29) 36529365=1(10.681) 365293650.7063 q31=1(1q30) 36530365=1(10.7063) 365303650.7305 q32=1(1q31) 36531365=1(10.7305) 365313650.7533 q33=1(1q32) 36532365=1(10.7533) 365323650.775 q34=1(1q33) 36533365=1(10.775) 365333650.7953 q35=1(1q34) 36534365=1(10.7953) 365343650.8144 q36=1(1q35) 36535365=1(10.8144) 365353650.8322 q37=1(1q36) 36536365=1(10.8322) 365363650.8487 q38=1(1q37) 36537365=1(10.8487) 365373650.8641 q39=1(1q38) 36538365=1(10.8641) 365383650.8782 q40=1(1q39) 36539365=1(10.8782) 365393650.8912 q41=1(1q40) 36540365=1(10.8912) 365403650.9032 q42=1(1q41) 36541365=1(10.9032) 365413650.914 n=41p_{1}=\dfrac{ 1 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0027 \ \\ \ \\ q_{2}=1-\dfrac{ 364 }{ 365 }=\dfrac{ 1 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0027 \ \\ q_{3}=1-(1-q_{2}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 363 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0027) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 363 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0082 \ \\ q_{4}=1-(1-q_{3}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 362 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0082) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 362 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0164 \ \\ \ \\ q_{5}=1-(1-q_{4}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-4 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0164) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-4 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0271 \ \\ q_{6}=1-(1-q_{5}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-5 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0271) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-5 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0405 \ \\ q_{7}=1-(1-q_{6}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-6 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0405) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-6 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0562 \ \\ q_{8}=1-(1-q_{7}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-7 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0562) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-7 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0743 \ \\ q_{9}=1-(1-q_{8}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-8 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0743) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-8 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.0946 \ \\ q_{10}=1-(1-q_{9}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-9 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.0946) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-9 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.1169 \ \\ q_{11}=1-(1-q_{10}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-10 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.1169) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-10 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.1411 \ \\ q_{12}=1-(1-q_{11}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-11 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.1411) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-11 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.167 \ \\ q_{13}=1-(1-q_{12}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-12 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.167) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-12 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.1944 \ \\ q_{14}=1-(1-q_{13}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-13 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.1944) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-13 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.2231 \ \\ q_{15}=1-(1-q_{14}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-14 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.2231) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-14 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.2529 \ \\ q_{16}=1-(1-q_{15}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-15 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.2529) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-15 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.2836 \ \\ q_{17}=1-(1-q_{16}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-16 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.2836) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-16 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.315 \ \\ q_{18}=1-(1-q_{17}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-17 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.315) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-17 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.3469 \ \\ q_{19}=1-(1-q_{18}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-18 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.3469) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-18 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.3791 \ \\ q_{20}=1-(1-q_{19}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-19 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.3791) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-19 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.4114 \ \\ q_{21}=1-(1-q_{20}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-20 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.4114) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-20 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.4437 \ \\ q_{22}=1-(1-q_{21}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-21 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.4437) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-21 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.4757 \ \\ q_{23}=1-(1-q_{22}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-22 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.4757) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-22 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.5073 \ \\ q_{24}=1-(1-q_{23}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-23 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.5073) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-23 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.5383 \ \\ q_{25}=1-(1-q_{24}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-24 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.5383) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-24 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.5687 \ \\ q_{26}=1-(1-q_{25}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-25 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.5687) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-25 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.5982 \ \\ q_{27}=1-(1-q_{26}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-26 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.5982) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-26 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.6269 \ \\ q_{28}=1-(1-q_{27}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-27 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.6269) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-27 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.6545 \ \\ q_{29}=1-(1-q_{28}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-28 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.6545) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-28 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.681 \ \\ q_{30}=1-(1-q_{29}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-29 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.681) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-29 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.7063 \ \\ q_{31}=1-(1-q_{30}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-30 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.7063) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-30 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.7305 \ \\ q_{32}=1-(1-q_{31}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-31 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.7305) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-31 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.7533 \ \\ q_{33}=1-(1-q_{32}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-32 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.7533) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-32 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.775 \ \\ q_{34}=1-(1-q_{33}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-33 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.775) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-33 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.7953 \ \\ q_{35}=1-(1-q_{34}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-34 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.7953) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-34 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8144 \ \\ q_{36}=1-(1-q_{35}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-35 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8144) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-35 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8322 \ \\ q_{37}=1-(1-q_{36}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-36 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8322) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-36 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8487 \ \\ q_{38}=1-(1-q_{37}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-37 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8487) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-37 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8641 \ \\ q_{39}=1-(1-q_{38}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-38 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8641) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-38 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8782 \ \\ q_{40}=1-(1-q_{39}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-39 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8782) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-39 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.8912 \ \\ q_{41}=1-(1-q_{40}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-40 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.8912) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-40 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.9032 \ \\ q_{42}=1-(1-q_{41}) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-41 }{ 365 }=1-(1-0.9032) \cdot \ \dfrac{ 365-41 }{ 365 } \doteq 0.914 \ \\ n=41



Our examples were largely sent or created by pupils and students themselves. Therefore, we would be pleased if you could send us any errors you found, spelling mistakes, or rephasing the example. Thank you!





Leave us a comment of this math problem and its solution (i.e. if it is still somewhat unclear...):

Showing 0 comments:
1st comment
Be the first to comment!
avatar




Tips to related online calculators
Our percentage calculator will help you quickly calculate various typical tasks with percentages.
Do you want to convert time units like minutes to seconds?
Would you like to compute count of combinations?

Next similar math problems:

  1. Engineer Kažimír
    demagog_smer_1 The difference between politicians-demagogues and reasonable person with at least primary education beautifully illustrated by the TV show example. "Engineer" Kažimír says that during their tenure there was a large decline in the price of natural gas, pr
  2. Washer
    pracka Washing machine drum wash at 58 RPM. Washing machine motor pulley has diameter 9 cm. What must be the diameter of the drum machine pulley when the motor is at 438 RPM?
  3. TV fail
    old_tv The TV has after 10,000 hours average 25 failures. Determine the probability of TV failure after 200 hours of operation.
  4. Trio ratio
    minca Hans, Alena and Thomas have a total of 740 USD. Hans and Alena split in the ratio 5: 6 and Alena and Thomas in the ratio 4: 5. How much will everyone get?
  5. Collection of stamps
    stamp_11 Jano, Rado, and Fero have created a collection of stamps in a ratio of 5: 6: 9. Two of them had 429 stamps together. How many stamps did their shared collection have?
  6. Chocolate
    cokolada_7 I have a box of chocolate - white, milk and dark. The ratio of white to milk with dark is 3: 4. The ratio of white and milk to dark is 17: 4. Calculate what is the ratio between white, milk, dark chocolate.
  7. Fixed expenses 2013
    istoty_komunisti Since 2013, the Slovak government plans to tax more small one person businesses. Instead of fixed expences 40% will be fixed expences 40% of gross income up to 420 Eur. Calculate what percentage of fixed expences will in 2013 pays from gross income 1569
  8. Election mathematics
    statny-znak-sr_1 In elections, 12 political parties received this shares of voters: party A 56.2 %party B 8.5 %party C 8.2 %party D 6.2 %party E 6.1 %party F 5.5 %party G 3.2 %party H 2.1 %party I 2 %party J 1 %party K 1 % Calculate what the shares acquired in the parli
  9. Grandmother's clocks
    kukuckove-hodiny Grandmother's clock is late every hour by half a minute. Grandmother it by set exactly at 8.00 am. How many hours will show after 24 hours.?
  10. Forestry workers
    forestry_workers In the forest is employed 56 laborers planting trees in nurseries. For 8 hour work day would end job in 37 days. After 16 days, 9 laborers go forth? How many days are needed to complete planting trees in nurseries by others, if they will work 10 hours a
  11. Bonus
    moeny Gross wage was 527 EUR including 16% bonus. How many EUR were bonuses?
  12. Blood
    krv In human body the blood is about 7.3% body weight. How many kilograms of blood is in the human body with weight 109 kg?
  13. Cyclist
    1cyclist Cyclist goes uphill 10 km for 50 minutes and downhill minutes for 29 minutes, both applied to the pedals same force. How long he pass 10 km by plane?
  14. Painters
    time Ten painters paint the school in 20 days. How many days do four painters paint the school at the same pace of work?
  15. Pupils
    family_29 There are 32 pupils in the classroom, and girls are two-thirds more than boys. a) How many percents are more girls than boys? Round the result to a whole percentage. b) How many are boys in the class? c) Find the ratio of boys and girls in the class. W
  16. Composite ratio
    penize_49 Jakub, Aneta, and Lenka divided 1342 USD in the ratio 5/2: 3/10: 1/4. How much did Lenka take?
  17. Seawater
    ice_cubes Seawater has a density of 1025 kg/m3, ice 920 kg/m3. 8 liters of seawater froze and created a cube. Calculate the size of the cube edge.